Scientific-analytical article. Analytical version for strategic use — May 2026. The complete English article includes ten analytical sections, a historical comparison table, a qualitative risk matrix, three scenarios and fourteen selected sources. Methodological note This article is based on the scenario proposed by the author, published reports available up to 17 May 2026, and a comparative study of uprisings driven by hunger, inflation, and the collapse of livelihoods over the last three hundred years. The purpose of the article is not to predict the future with certainty. Its aim is to build a scientific framework for assessing the probability, trajectory, and consequences of a “hunger revolt” or “livelihood revolution” in Iran. The article offers no violent, military, or security-related operational recommendations. It is solely a political-sociological analysis and risk assessment.