Scientific-analytical article by Peyman Bakhshayesh, MD, PhD, MBA. Persian edition for strategic use — May 2026. The complete Persian text contains ten analytical sections, a historical comparison table, a qualitative risk matrix, three scenarios, and fourteen linked references. It is available below as a twelve-page reader, with PDF and Word downloads. Methodological note The article follows the author’s scenario and reports available through 17 May 2026. It presents a comparative political-sociological analysis rather than a certain forecast. The risk matrix is qualitative. The May 2026 date identifies the analytical edition.